On the proposed disintegration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research

Friday the 13th is the deadline to reply to National Science Foundation’s announced breakup of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, founded 66 years ago to lead American atmospheric science. In December, Trump vizier Russ Vought declared NCAR would be executed for “climate alarmism.” A month later, NSF published a “Dear Colleague Letter” requesting advice on how to sell off NCAR for parts.

A whistleblower to Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) has recently exposed that Vought’s OMB made a secret deal in January, before the NSF letter even went out, with a private company to take over NCAR’s space weather program. That company is presumably Lynker, who launched its space-weather division in August 2024 under former NCAR deputy director Scott McIntosh, although its CEO is publicly denying that.¹

It is a safe bet that state universities in Republican, fossil-fueled climate-denial strongholds are also part of the secret deals. The University of Wyoming is presumptively taking control of NCAR’s supercomputer, and the University of Oklahoma is taking over NCAR’s weather-forecasting and education capacities.

Nevertheless, I present my letter to NSF, submitted using the American Geophysical Union’s letter-submission tool. You should too!²

To: [email protected]

Subject: Response to DCL – NCAR Restructuring and National Research Continuity

This submission responds to the February 2026 Dear Colleague Letter regarding the proposed restructuring of the gold-standard National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

1. NCAR’s Integrated Mission

NCAR’s numerical modeling systems (e.g., UFS, CESM, WRF), the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC), observational testbeds, and research aircraft form a tightly integrated, world-class research and operational capability. These components are interdependent: supercomputing enables large‑ensemble forecasting and model development; community models provide the physics and assimilation frameworks used by NOAA and NASA; airborne platforms provide the targeted data that improve model performance. Disaggregation of these functions would sever critical links between research, forecasting, and operational use and threaten the United States’ status as the gold standard for scientific knowledge in service of the betterment of life on Earth.

2. Existing Statutory and Interagency Dependencies

Under the National Science Foundation Act (42 U.S.C. 16), NSF funds and oversees fundamental science and national research infrastructure, including federally funded research and development centers such as NCAR. NCAR’s structure meets this mandate by enabling sustained, coherent research across atmospheric, climate, and space sciences.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s statutory responsibilities for weather research, forecasting improvements, and hazard prediction—which Congress seeks to expand in the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Reauthorization Act of 2026—rely on community modeling, high‑performance computation, and research testbeds that NCAR currently provides.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) mandates presuppose resources and coordination that are uniquely provided by NCAR. The 2018 Earth Science Decadal Survey consensus report, Thriving on Our Changing Planet, stresses the need for integrated observation, modeling, and data assimilation across agencies to address weather, climate, and environmental challenges. The 2024 Heliophysics Decadal Survey similarly identifies space weather modeling as a national research priority supported by coordinated infrastructure investments. 

The Department of Energy (DOE) collaborates with NCAR on high-performance computing (HPC) development for coupled climate and atmospheric systems, including research on decarbonization impacts and advanced climate simulation frameworks.

The Department of Defense (DoD) depends on NCAR’s modeling and forecasting capabilities for atmospheric simulations and forecasts relevant to operational planning, flight environments, and space weather effects that impact defense systems.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other DOI science offices rely on NCAR’s integration of hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, and hazard prediction models for land‑water‑climate system assessments.

These and many other cross‑agency dependencies mean that dismantling or reassigning NCAR functions poses national security risks, jeopardizes public welfare, and threatens economic resilience by degrading federally mandated research, forecasting, and hazard prediction systems.

3. Bipartisan Political Opposition and Legal Concerns

A broad bipartisan coalition of 76 members of Congress, including Representatives Neguse and Hurd and Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper, has publicly mobilized to protect NCAR’s ongoing funding and core capabilities, describing NSF’s proposals to dismantle it as illegal and indefensible and inconsistent with statutory intent. This political opposition reflects both the legal exposure of actions contravening Congressional intent and the national-security and public-safety implications of undermining a world‑class research institution.

Last week, the Senate Commerce, Science, and Technology Committee, whose members include Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, reported favorably the aforementioned Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Reauthorization Act (S. 3923) with a provision forbidding any action to “restructure, divest, or transfer” NCAR activities and infrastructure for at least 60 days, another clear indication of Congressional intent.

4. Climate Change Cannot Be Wished Away 

Implicit in the restructuring rationale is an attempt to narrow NCAR’s role to “seasonal weather prediction, severe storms, and space weather” while excluding climate observation and research. The underlying premise is fundamentally flawed and dangerous. Man-made climate change is a fact. It is a legally recognized threat in long‑term hazard planning, infrastructure investment, and national security assessments; it is codified in federal strategies including the Quadrennial Climate Review, Decadal Strategies, and national climate assessments. Removing or diminishing NCAR’s integrated climate observation and modeling capacity risks catastrophic policy decisions on sea level rise, drought, wildfires, extreme heat, and other phenomena of our climate system.

5. Other Concerns

NCAR operates under a cooperative agreement with NSF, managed by UCAR, most recently renewed for a five-year term in 2023. Abrupt divestiture or fragmentation of facilities (NWSC, aircraft, modeling programs) would violate contractual commitments, including obligations to maintain research integrity, access, and continuity for federally funded programs.

Geoscience research priorities including AI-driven workflow integration, data assimilation, and automated modeling (Gil et al., CACM 2019) depend on access to NCAR’s unique observational, modeling, and computing infrastructure. Dissolution or fragmentation of NCAR would directly impede NSF’s ability to execute this forward-looking scientific agenda.

6. Recommendations

To fulfill statutory obligations and national research priorities, NSF should affirm the continuity of NCAR’s integrated mission under UCAR stewardship, preserving NWSC, modeling systems, and observational platforms as a cohesive infrastructure.

Any restructuring within NCAR must explicitly safeguard continued interagency access, particularly for NOAA and NASA operational and research functions, and align with legislative intent as expressed by Congress in appropriations and reauthorization statutes.

Before taking any further action, NSF must provide a clear and comprehensive justification that proposed changes do not contravene existing statutory directives, cooperative agreements, contractual obligations, interagency dependencies, or obligations to states and localities.

7. Conclusion

The scientific and operational harms to the national interest caused by disintegrating NCAR outweighs any administrative edict for fragmenting its assets. Continuation of NCAR as a coherent entity under UCAR is essential for NSF to fulfill its statutory mission of supporting national research infrastructure, and is the best path forward to maintain a gold standard for American science.

With all due respect,

Brad Johnson

Editor, Hill Heat

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1  Colorado’s senators Michael Bennet (running for governor) and former fracking engineer John Hickenlooper (running for re-election) made a half-hearted effort to defend NCAR but gave up in January. Only Neguse has continued the fight.

2  The American Academy of Actuaries and American Meteorological Society has published their letters to NSF as well. Join them and share: #saveNCAR.