• Hill Heat
  • Posts
  • 2026 Electoral Preview: Key September Democratic Congressional Primaries

2026 Electoral Preview: Key September Democratic Congressional Primaries

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Delaware finish the season. Plus local climate hawks

September closes out the 2026 primary season, with Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Delaware. The month is beginning with Big Sur burning, Edouard flooding Louisiana, sweltering heat gripping the nation’s capital, and the Massachusetts primaries.

The Downballot has a comprehensive look at the races; the fight in Massachusetts’ 6th District, an open seat vacated by Rep. Seth Moulton in his challenge to Sen. Ed Markey, and New Hampshire’s 1st District, an open seat vacated by Rep. Chris Pappas in his bid to succeed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, are the most contentious.

The Democratic incumbents in the Rhode Island and Delaware Congressional delegation are expected to win their primaries and general election easily.

Further down the ballot, Lead Locally is backing progressive climate hawks in competitive primaries in both Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Tuesday, September 1

Massachusetts—U.S. Senate

Sen. Ed Markey with Rep. Ayanna Presley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu at Titus Sparrow Park in Boston’s South End, August 31, 2026.

Sen. Ed Markey with Rep. Ayanna Presley and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu at Titus Sparrow Park in Boston’s South End, August 31, 2026.

Incumbent: Ed Markey (D)
Rating: Solid D

Octogenarian Green New Dealer Ed Markey, outliving Dolly Parton and Tim Curry, is expected to trounce Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.-6th), despite the efforts of Moulton’s private-equity super PAC.

Massachusetts’ 1st

Incumbent: Richard Neal (D)
Rating: Solid D

Springfield’s Richie Neal, the powerful ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, is a 77-year-old gerontocrat, a corporatist, fossil-fueled politician who surprised some by backing Biden’s Build Back Better Act. Neal last faced a serious primary challenger in 2020, when Holyoke mayor Alex Morse took 42%. Neal now has a longshot challenge from Jeromie Whalen, a progressive climate hawk.

Massachusetts’ 6th

Open (Moulton)
Rating: Safe D

The race to fill Seth Moulton’s North Shore seat is led by labor-backed politico Dan Koh, but progressive State Rep. Tram Nguyen, the State House Chair of Climate Action and Sustainability, has picked up endorsements from Rep. Ayanna Pressley and Rep. Lori Trahan (who beat Koh in a 2018 primary). Businessman John Beccia has put in millions of his own money to attack Koh and Nguyen.

Massachusetts’ 8th

Incumbent: Stephen Lynch (D)
Rating: Safe D

The conservative Stephen Lynch (age 71), representing an oddly shaped district that includes most of Boston, the South Shore, and other suburbs, is facing a challenge from progressive Patrick Roath (age 38), backed by David Hogg’s Leaders We Deserve, Bill McKibben’s Third Act, and Boston activists. Roath has outraised Lynch, who voted for the virulently anti-immigrant Laken Riley Act and is the ranking member of the key House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, but it will be a shock if he wins.

Massachusetts Local Races

Lead Locally has endorsed several contenders for the Massachusetts state legislature, including:

  • Newton City Councillor Alison Leary for State Representative, 10th Middlesex District (Newton, Waltham, and Watertown), against long-time incumbent John Lawn. Leary is a champion of urban electrification and getting off of fossil gas.

  • Lorena Betts for State Representative, 16th Middlesex District (Chelmsford and Lowell), an open seat.

  • Union organizer Evan MacKay for State Representative, 25th Middlesex District (Cambridge) against incumbent Marjorie Decker.

  • State Rep. Erika Uyterhoeven for State Senate, 2nd Middlesex District (Medford, Somerville, and north Cambridge), an open seat.

  • Malden City Councillor Carey McDonald for State Senate, 5th Middlesex District (Malden, Melrose, Wakefield, Reading), an open seat.

  • Daniel Lander, a senior aide to Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, for State Senate, Suffolk and Middlesex District (Fenway, Allston-Brighton, Watertown, west Cambridge, Belmont) against incumbent Senate President Pro Tem Will Brownsberger (D), a climate policy wonk who has clashed with Mayor Wu.

Tuesday, September 8th

New Hampshire—U.S. Senate

Open (Shaheen)
Rating: Leans D

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen has decided her place in history is as one of Chuck Schumer’s minions in capitulating to Trump before retirement. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.-1st) is wildly outspending the competition to be the Democratic nominee to replace Shaheen; for the climate hawk Karishma Manzur to win would be an outstanding upset. Pappas claims he will use an “all-of-the-above energy strategy” to “address the existential threat of climate change.”

Former N.H. Sen. John Sununu, son of former N.H. Gov. John Sunununotorious for killing climate action under the first President Bush— and brother of former N.H. Gov. Chris Sununu, is expected to defeat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown in the GOP primary. Sununu’s energy plan is to accelerate global warming through more drilling and pipelines.

New Hampshire’s 1st

Open (Pappas)
Rating: Likely D

Iraq vet and Obama administration official Maura Sullivan, who lost to Pappas in 2018, has been a fundraising juggernaut this time, outstripping Shaheen’s daughter Stefany Shaheen (endorsed by Sen. Maggie Hassan) and the other candidates, including progressive Carleigh Beriont, the only outspoken climate hawk in the race.

Rhode Island Local Races

Lead Locally has endorsed a slate of climate hawks in Rhode Island, including several progressive incumbents as well as the following challengers:

  • Rep. David Morales (D), running for Mayor of Providence against incumbent Brett Smiley, who is a defender of the city’s Flock contract

  • Yulyana Torres, Jackie Goldman, and Annajane Yolken, running for open seats on the Providence City Council

  • Amy Santiago, looking to succeed Rep. Morales for State House District 7

  • Gena Felix, challenging incumbent Lori Urso (D) for State Senate District 8

  • Nelly Burdette, running unopposed to be the Democratic nominee for State Senate District 17, currently controlled by Republican Thomas Paolino

Hill Heat’s U.S. Climate Politics Almanac is made available to the public thanks to our paid subscribers. Join their ranks today and grow the movement:

Reply

or to participate.