After a quiet¹ July, the primary season heats up again in August (much as the planet is doing!). On August 4th, the first Tuesday of the month, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington hold primaries. Tennessee holds its primary election on Thursday, August 6th, and Hawaii on Saturday, August 8th. The next Tuesday, August 11th, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin votes. Finally, voters in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming cast their ballots on Tuesday, August 18th.

Below, we’ll highlight key climate races in Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Florida.²

Tuesday, August 4th

Several Michigan Democratic primaries are being seen as referenda on the future of the Democratic Party and the power of a Sanders or AOC endorsement. There is some truth to that claim, as candidates are differentiating themselves on the Israel-Iran war, data centers, and Medicare for All. But the candidates are also campaigning differently, testing whether in-district field campaigning can overcome high-dollar ad blitzes.

Michigan—U.S. Senate

Open (Peters)
Rating: Toss-up

Sen. Gary Peters (D), one of Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) reliable scapegoats when Democratic votes are needed to avoid a confrontation with the Trump regime, is retiring. The Democratic primary has become a hotly contested race between the openly leftist Abdul El-Sayed and the AIPAC-backed Haley Stevens. On the national stage, it’s seen as a contest between the party’s DSA wing (Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) and the corporatist wing (Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, AIPAC, EMILYs List, and the Congressional Black Caucus). El-Sayed wants to confront global warming as a crisis of corporate influence and health; Stevens is only mildly interested in addressing the threat, especially if it involves challenging Detroit auto manufacturers to change.

Michigan’s 7th

Incumbent: Tom Barrett (R)
Rating: Toss-up

Sunrise Movement co-founder Will Lawrence is hoping to carve out a progressive, anti-war victory against two well-funded military-industrial candidates, former Biden ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink (backed by Emily’s List) and former Obama military aide Matt Maasdam (backed by Defend the Vote). As previously discussed, Lawrence has emerged as the front-runner after being, by far, the most active on-the-ground campaigner for the seat and by being the only candidate willing to aggressively challenge data center construction. Incumbent Tom Barrett (R) avoids his constituents but spent Monday at a rally with President Donald Trump in the district.

Nearly $2 million in outside money has been spent attacking Lawrence, but the outside groups backing Brink and Maasdam are spending similar money smearing each other.

Michigan’s 13th

Incumbent: Shri Thanedar (D)
Rating: Solid D

Progressive Donovan McKinney is strong on climate and is backed by the Congressional Black Caucus (whose outside PAC is spending twenty times as much to take out William Lawrence in the neighboring 7th District). McKinney and Lawrence are campaigning with the El-Sayed campaign. It’s looking like the iconoclastic Rep. Shri Thanedar is on his way out.

Missouri’s 1st

Incumbent: Wesley Bell (D)
Rating: Solid D

Green New Dealer Cori Bush is running to reclaim MO-01 from the AIPAC-supported Wesley Bell. Although Bell has outspent Bush two-to-one, this is a competitive race, especially with the continuing catastrophe of the Israel-Iran war.

Virginia’s 1st

Incumbent: Robert Wittman (R)
Rating: Leans R

If this is a wave election, Democrats will win this seat. Shannon Taylor has a clear path in the primary. She took over $650,000 from Dominion Energy last year during her campaign for attorney general; she narrowly lost that primary to Jay Jones, who is a clear climate champion. Taylor’s position on data centers has hardened in the past year. The League of Conservation Voters has endorsed Taylor and is already targeting Wittman.

Virginia’s 2nd

Incumbent: Jennifer Kiggans (R)
Rating: Toss-up

As Trump drags down his party, this is is looking more like a Democratic pick-up than a toss-up race. AIPAC ally Elaine Luria is trying to take back this seat after losing it in 2022. She was a Climate Hawks Vote pick in 2018, and campaigns on PFAS contamination and sea-level rise, major issues in her coastal Naval base district.

Virginia’s 5th

Incumbent: John McGuire III (R)
Rating: Safe R

Rural progressive climate hawk Tom Perriello is pushing hard to take back this seat, which he held for one term fifteen years ago. Perriello was looking to have a relatively easy path to victory when the Virginia legislature redrew the state’s districts, but the Trumpist Virginia Supreme Court struck down the new map. Perriello has a shot in this tought district, however, as he is a tough campaigner with an impressive warchest, and McGuire is notable for defending child marriage and ignoring even his conservative constituents.

Saturday, August 8th

Hawaii’s 1st

Incumbent: Ed Case (D)
Rating: Solid D

Indivisible, Our Hawaii, and others are strongly invested in challenging the truly terrible incumbent Democrat Ed Case— perhaps most notorious for joining the “Unbreakable Nine” to obstruct Biden’s Build Back Better bill. Case had numerous challengers earlier in the cycle, but this has since emerged as a competitive head-to-head race between Case and state senator Jarrett Keohokalole, the lead sponsor of a bill empowering Hawaii's AG to sue fossil fuel companies for rising insurance costs during the 2026 session. As Civil Beat notes: “One of [Keohokalole's] signature accomplishments was passing legislation designed to stabilize the condominium insurance market after a series of disasters limited options and increased premiums for Hawaiʻi residents.” Although most climate organizations are backing Keohokalole, the League of Conservation Voters has endorsed Case for re-election.

Tuesday, August 11th

Minnesota—U.S. Senate

Open (Smith)
Rating: Likely D

The Democratic Farmer Labor (DFL) primary for retiring Senator Tina Smith’s seat had a defining moment nearly one year ago: while lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan spent the opening day of the Minnesota state fair shaking hands and enjoying cookies alongside Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Rep. Angie Craig was at a Jackson Hole crypto conference, where she warmed up the crowd for Eric Trump.

Despite this contrast, Craig has argued that she’s the more electable statewide candidate, an assessment that is apparently shared by national Republicans. Craig’s past support from AIPAC, crypto, and Big Oil has been a major issue in the race. But nothing has defined the race quite so strongly as the fact that Craig reportedly “didn’t see” Trump’s violent authoritarian attacks on Minnesota coming when she voted for the Laken-Riley Act in January 2025.]

In addition to endorsements from Warren, Smith, and the state DFL party itself, Flanagan has won support from many nationally known progressives and Green New Dealers, including Bernie Sanders, Ed Markey, Ilhan Omar.

This primary election was highlighted in a New York Times story about Senate Democrats’ “Fight Club Caucus,” which has formed to urge Schumer to embrace candidates who will organize like Flanagan rather than accommodate corporate interests like Craig.

Minnesota’s 2nd

Open (Craig)
Rating: Likely D

The DFL endorsement in this open election for Craig’s congressional seat went to former state senator Matt Little, who is also endorsed by progressive figures such as Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and state attorney general Keith Ellison. Polling shows Little with a lead over state representative Kaela Berg, who is also running as a progressive, and state senator Matt Klein, who has sought to position himself as a more moderate successor to Craig. Klein paid a fine earlier this year after Kalshi exposed him for betting on this congressional election— seemingly in retaliation for his co-authorship of a first-in-the-nation law to ban prediction markets.

Wisconsin Governor

Open (Evers)
Rating: Toss-up

For months, the Democratic primary to succeed retiring governor Tony Evers consisted of seven seemingly viable candidates struggling to distinguish from one another. The defining issue emerged when Francesca Hong, a socialist assemblymember from Madison, became the only candidate to support a moratorium on data centers. The popularity of this stance caused Hong to break away from the rest of the field—and earlier this month, the New York Times’ profile of Hong opened with an anecdote about a Trump voter supporting Hong on the basis of her data center position.

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) is spending money on ads aimed at boosting Hong. Panicked Wisconsin Democrats attempted to rally around an alternative. When Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley dropped out of the race and endorsed lieutenant governor Sara Rodriguez, it seemed like Rodriguez was the chosen alternative. But Rodriguez’s campaign quickly imploded with a shocking campaign finance revelation. The next best option would have seemed to be former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes. Instead of rallying behind Barnes, Evers seemingly encouraged Crowley to re-enter the race with his endorsement. Barnes has subsequently dropped out. 

Numerous polls now confirm that Hong is the overwhelming favorite to win the primary. State Navigate’s poll showed that data centers was the single biggest issue for many primary voters, and that Hong won 87% of the respondents who indicated data centers were their top priority. There isn’t much empirical data to support the apparent belief that Hong is the weakest candidate against the Republican nominee, far-right Rep. Tom Tiffany.

Wisconsin’s 3rd

Incumbent: Derrick Van Orden (R)
Rating: Toss-up

Rebecca Cooke is setting herself up to be a Blue Dog, while Emily Berge has authentic community connections and endorsements from a wider range of Wisconsin-based elected officials. But Cooke is endorsed by both Bernie Sanders and the national corporatist Democratic machine—New Dems, Emily’s List, LCV, and now the official Democratic House campaign arm, the DCCC.

Tuesday, August 18th

Florida’s 13th

Incumbent: Anna Paulina Luna (R)
Rating: Likely R
Primary: August 18

Last cycle, Dems made a late play to contest this seat with a challenger named Whitney Fox, who ran a fairly progressive campaign centered around insurance reform. Republicans aimed to strengthen their hand with a gerrymander earlier this year, but this seat remains rated Likely R. Fox, The heavy favorite would seem to Army veteran Leela Gray, endorsed by Fox, Pete Buttigieg, and EMILY’s List, though Florida Rising and Florida for Bernie have gotten behind teacher Brandt Robinson.

1  Speaking only in terms of primary elections.

2  Jane Fonda Climate PAC, Lead Locally, and Climate Cabinet have made local endorsements in Alaska (Lead Locally), Michigan (Climate Cabinet and JanePAC), Minnesota (JanePAC), and Wisconsin (Lead Locally and Climate Cabinet).